Economy
Inflation, the Fed and the data that sets the tone for every market on the board.
The U.S. trade deficit surged 13.7% to $105.6 billion in August 2026, the widest since March 2025, as imports hit a record $420.8 billion, data shows.
NY Fed survey shows consumers' one-year inflation outlook rose to 3.9% in September 2026, the highest since May 2023, even as CPI held at 3.4%.
India's central bank raised its benchmark repo rate 25 basis points to 5.50% on Oct 7, 2026, its first hike since February 2023, as inflation hit 4.8%.
New York Fed research finds Trump's tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation by February 2026, with more increases still coming.
U.S. employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below Wall Street's 84,000 forecast, as the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% from 4.1%, BLS data show.
China's industrial profit growth slowed sharply to 4.2% in August 2026, the weakest monthly pace this year, as auto-sector earnings fell 16% year-on-year.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.18% on Sept. 24, 2026, its highest since 2007, pressuring Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ahead of the Oct. 27-28 meeting.
Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0% on Sept 24, 2026, its third straight hold this year, citing low inflation and a strong franc.
France's 10-year bond yield topped 4.5% for the first time since 2008 as PM Lecornu pushes €54 billion in cuts to hold the 2027 deficit near 5% of GDP.
Why tariffs exist: revenue, protection, leverage and security. See US effective rates as of July 2026, who pays, a worked duty calculation and common mistakes.
Wikipedia lists Bank of England Bank Rate at 3.75%, down from a 5.25% peak in August 2023. A reported 17 September 2026 hold and 3.1% inflation are unverified.
The FOMC decides Sept. 16 at 2 p.m. ET. A 25bp hike would lift the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, the first rise since 2023, with July core PCE at 3.3%.
UK CPI rose to 3.1% in August 2026 from 2.9%, driven by a 23% annual jump in motor fuel costs, while core inflation held at 2.9% before the BoE's 17 September call.
Brown's tracker puts the Iran war's extra fuel cost at about $780 per US household, $101 billion in total. The $1,700 household figure remains unverified.
Markets put roughly 83% odds on a quarter-point Fed hike on Sept. 16 after July's 9-3 hold. What is verified about Warsh's vote count, and what is not.